Crunch time: where Premier League relegation battle will be decided

16th Leeds: Pl 33 Pts 34 GD -30

Why are they in this predicament? The injuries which, for much of the season, deprived Leeds of last season’s leading scorer, Patrick Bamford, their England defensive midfielder Kalvin Phillips and their captain and key centre-half, Liam Cooper, fractured the team’s spine, impacting results adversely. Marcelo Bielsa performed wonders at Elland Road but things had started to unravel under the Argentinian this season and his replacement with the impressive Jesse Marsch on 1 March arguably came slightly too late. Although Marsch has praised Bielsa he has suggested that the intensity of his predecessor’s training regime prompted a “myriad of injuries” allied to physical and mental burnout. Moreover Bielsa’s often gung-ho, high-risk, gameplans led to to the concession of an awful lot of goals.

How likely do they look to stay up? Leeds nurse a significantly worse goal difference than Burnley and Everton and face the most formidable-looking final fixtures. Conversely they do have the most points in the bag and appear revitalised under Marsch’s tactically and emotionally intelligent leadership. They also possess Raphinha’s right-wing brilliance, have Phillips and Cooper fit again and remain optimistic that Bamford, by far their most incisive striker, will return for at least the two final games.

Which players are key to their chances? Bamford: it is no exaggeration to say his reintroduction to attack could be the difference between survival and relegation. Mentions also for Illan Meslier, outstanding in goal this season, Phillips, who offers much-needed midfield control, and Raphinha, on his day an unplayable winger and the creator of so many chances. Louise Taylor

Writer’s prediction 20th Norwich, 19th Watford, 18th Everton

Remaining fixtures Sat Manchester City (h), 8 May Arsenal (a), 11 May Chelsea (h), 15 May Brighton (h), 22 May Brentford (a)

17th Burnley: Pl 33 Pts 31 GD -16

Why are they in this predicament? Sean Dyche’s tried and trusted methods no longer energised the team. The relationship between players and coaching staff had broken down. The former manager was sacked in mid-April, days after a dismal away defeat by the bottom club Norwich, with the team set for the drop after four wins in 30 games.

How likely do they look to stay up? Since the departure of Dyche, Burnley have collected seven points in three matches under the stewardship of the caretaker Mike Jackson and his backroom staff, including the captain, Ben Mee. They have looked revitalised, playing a brand of football not witnessed in the past decade; Burnley attack and allow players to express themselves in a manner that would have resulted in a growl from the technical area under Dyche.

Which players are key to their chances? The defence has always been steady and remains rigid. In the final third, however, things need to come to life. Dwight McNeil has found form under Jackson and looks to be enjoying his football after a tough spell that has brought him one assist all season. He is looking like the player who burst into the Premier League with his ability to go either way and provide sublime delivery from either flank. Wout Weghorst will be hoping to make the most of this upsurge in productivity from McNeil – the Dutchman has two goals in 15 matches since joining from Wolfsburg in January. Will Unwin

Writer’s prediction 20th Norwich, 19th Watford, 18th Everton

Remaining fixtures Sat Watford (a), 7 May Aston Villa (h), 15 May Tottenham (a), 19 May Aston Villa (a), 22 May Newcastle (h)

18th Everton: Pl 32 Pts 29 GD -21

Why are they in this predicament? Six years of appalling mismanagement by Farhad Moshiri and the board – that includes, but is not limited to, woeful and extravagant recruitment, a scattergun managerial policy, huge losses and no clear or intelligent football vision – has not only cost Everton their long-coveted chance to close the gap on the Premier League elite but imperilled their 68-year residence in the top flight. To do so having spent about £600m on signings in the Moshiri era – one of the highest outlays in European football in that period – defies belief as well as business logic. After a good start to the season, injuries to several key players sent a mishmash of a team into a tailspin under Rafael Benítez from which they have yet to recover.

How likely do they look to stay up? The table, fixture list and Everton’s atrocious away form point towards a first relegation since 1951 yet there are signs that all is not lost under Frank Lampard. There has been no great managerial bounce in terms of results under Lampard, who has won 10 points from 12 league games (the 14 games before he arrived yielded six points), but performance levels at Goodison Park have undoubtedly improved. The three remaining home fixtures, against Chelsea, Brentford and Crystal Palace, are must-wins.

Which players are key to their chances? Anthony Gordon has been the one consistent light this season and, given Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s injury problems, Lampard needs more goals and assists from the 21-year-old and from Richarlison. Alex Iwobi has stepped up impressively under the new manager. Andy Hunter

Writer’s prediction 20th Norwich, 19th Watford, 18th Burnley

Remaining fixtures Sun Chelsea (h), 8 May Leicester (a), 11 May Watford (a), 15 May Brentford (h), 19 May Crystal Palace (h), 22 May Arsenal (a)

19th Watford Pl 33 Pts 22 GD -36

Why are they in this predicament? A record run of 10 successive home defeats in the Premier League that started after November’s 4-1 thrashing of Manchester United has virtually extinguished any chance of survival, with Roy Hodgson yet to pick up a point at Vicarage Road since succeeding Claudio Ranieri in January. It all looked so different on the first day of the season when Xisco Muñoz’s side saw off Aston Villa 3-0 but the Spaniard went the way of so many of his predecessors despite a decent start and neither Ranieri nor Hodgson has been able to instigate a revival.

How likely do they look to stay up? Watford must beat Burnley at home on Saturday to keep alive their faint hopes of avoiding the drop. They then face a trip to Hodgson’s former club Crystal Palace before facing Everton and Leicester at Vicarage Road and cannot afford to slip up in any of those either – especially with a daunting final fixture at Chelsea. Hodgson masterminded Fulham’s great escape at the end of the 2007-08 season with a a run of 12 points from the last five games, including a 3–2 win over Manchester City after being 2–0 down with 20 minutes remaining, so perhaps he has one last trick up his sleeve.

Which players are key to their chances? Ismaïla Sarr has struggled to find consistency but the Senegal forward, courted by Manchester United last year, is capable of inspiring match-winning performances, and Emmanuel Dennis looks back in form after a difficult few months. Ed Aarons

Prediction 20th Norwich, 19th Watford, 18th Everton

Remaining fixtures Sat Burnley (h), 7 May Crystal Palace (a), 11 May Everton (h), 15 May Leicester (h), 22 May Chelsea (a)

20 Norwich Pl 33 Pts 21 GD -47

Why are they in this predicament? Not good enough in either box. That’s the line from both managers this season – Daniel Farke and Dean Smith – although the truth is that they’re not much good in the middle either. A lack of quality and belief has been all too apparent for the vast majority of the season, but a lack of physical capability is the primary failing that has left them unable to compete at this level.

How likely do they look to stay up? They could go down this weekend if results go against Norwich at Villa Park and elsewhere. Even if that doesn’t come to pass their demise surely remains inevitable. There is also an issue of increasing disquiet among the fanbase, which is hardly likely to gee anyone up for a shot at a miracle.

Which players are key to their chances? Arguably only two players squad have lived up to the challenge this season. Teemu Pukki has 10 Premier League goals, from an average of 1.77 shots per game (82nd in the league and fewer than Marcos Alonso). Not only has he made the most of meagre service, he’s been doing some of the most intensive work off the ball too, conducting 605 defensive pressures, the fifth most in the league according to Fbref.com. The club captain, Grant Hanley, has also delivered. He is third in the league for clearances and eighth for blocks, with the Scot putting himself on the line effectively whenever he has played. The same, sadly, cannot be said for the rest. Paul MacInnes

Writer’s prediction 20th Norwich, 19th Watford, 18th Everton

Remaining fixtures Sat Aston Villa (a), 8 May West Ham (h), 11 May Leicester (a), 15 May Wolves (a), 22 May Tottenham (h)