FA Cup and Premier League: 10 things to look out for this weekend

1) Sarr’s Chelsea cup specialism under threat

Chelsea have fielded strong teams throughout their run – few clubs take upholding the sporting integrity of this competition so seriously – with Lewis Hall, who excelled on his first-team debut against Chesterfield in the third round, the one genuinely unfamiliar name to be fielded so far. But the only player who has been present for every minute of their three Cup ties is Malang Sarr – indeed the 23-year-old has played every minute of every one of Chelsea’s domestic cup ties this season except the most important, the Carabao Cup final, which he watched from the bench. In that time he has played at centre-back in a four, as centre-back in a three, and at left-back, but his defending was criticised for both Luton goals in the fifth round and, having been unconvincing when given a rare Premier League outing against Newcastle last weekend, his position as Chelsea’s not-that-important-domestic-cup-tie specialist might be under threat.

2) Boro motivated to complete hat-trick of shocks

When Chris Wilder was sacked by Sheffield United a year ago towards the end of the Blades’ miserable second season in the Premier League, there was shock in some quarters and an acceptance results had got too bad in others. Like Marcelo Bielsa at Leeds last month, Wilder left Yorkshire a hero for what he had done before, and with few people questioning his coaching talent. It has been uplifting and reassuring then to see the transformation he has overseen at Middlesbrough, guiding them into play-off contention in the Championship and to an FA Cup quarter-final against Chelsea. Manchester United (on penalties) and Tottenham (after extra time) have been dumped out along the way, with Boro seemingly getting stronger as those games wore on. With Chelsea in turmoil off the pitch, and Wilder’s players – and the Riverside faithful – no doubt intent on punishing the Blues for their embarrassing attempt to keep the home fans out, the visitors could be in for a tricky evening. 

3) Stats stack up nicely for Forest’s attack

Surprisingly, in their home games against Shrewsbury, Cardiff and Norwich in this season’s Cup, Liverpool have had only two more shots on target than Nottingham Forest have in their considerably harder assignments against Arsenal, Leicester and Huddersfield, and conceded only one shot on target fewer. A curiosity of Forest’s Cup run is that while in the league they score with approximately one shot in every eight (53 goals from 428 shots), in this year’s Cup they have scored with one shot in every 3.7, a statistically unlikely success rate unmatched by any other side left in the competition. Liverpool have converted 55 shots into nine goals, very similar to their Premier League conversion ratio, and Forest 26 shots into seven goals.

4) Saints must take heart from City dates

Southampton will draw considerable strength from previous results this season against the Premier League leaders. They shared the points home and away with Pep Guardiola’s side, a head-to-head record bettered only by Crystal Palace, who won at the Etihad and held them to a goalless draw at Selhurst Park on Monday. No reason to feel intimidated then, especially with Manchester City’s usually smooth engine stuttering ever so slightly. On the downside for Southampton, arguably the best prolonged spell of form since Ralph Hassenhüttl arrived has been abruptly ended by three straight defeats in the league. Booking a place in the FA Cup semi-finals would be just the tonic. 

5) Everton’s tinkering leaves them at risk

Everton’s constant switching between defensive formations, playing a back four here, a back three there, or, as against Wolves last weekend, a back three and a back four at different stages of the game, is surely one of the causes (not a short list) of their recent failings. In the past fortnight Jonjoe Kenny, a right-back, has played left-back in a four and centre-back in a three. Crystal Palace meanwhile have the benefit of absolute consistency in defence: when fit Tyrick Mitchell, Marc Guéhi, Joachim Andersen and Joel Ward play as a four. But now, perhaps for the first time this season, there is some uncertainty – Ward missed four matches with a groin injury before being judged ready only for a place on the bench against Manchester City on Monday, and in his absence Nathaniel Clyne has impressed, leaving Patrick Vieira with a decision to make. When Everton travelled to Palace in December they had not lost there in 10 visits over nearly 20 years, in which time they had won five times at Selhurst Park. They lost 3-1. 

6) Vieira to get something to dance about?

With Everton low on confidence and focused on a relegation scrap, Crystal Palace will fancy their chances of a return to Wembley for the first time since they lost the FA Cup final to Manchester United there in 2016. Who can forget that Alan Pardew dad-dance? The Toffees have lost every away match under Frank Lampard while Palace will be buoyed up by their heroic display in earning a point against Manchester City last Monday. The on-loan Chelsea midfielder Conor Gallagher was excellent again in that match and will probably be a thorn in the side of Lampard, who is a known admirer. Palace have lost only two matches in 10 – to Liverpool and Chelsea – and could start to sense that silverware is not beyond them.

7) Spurs must succeed in tricky but winnable games

A pre-Christmas Covid-19 postponement means that Tottenham will come up against Brighton twice in a month, having defeated them 2-0 away from home on Wednesday. Their upcoming fixtures all look tricky but winnable, starting against West Ham on Sunday before Newcastle (home), Aston Villa (away) and Brighton’s visit to north London. “I think we’re going step by step and I’m beginning to see my team improving in every game,” Antonio Conte said after Wednesday’s victory, and it does look like real progress is being made. Sunday’s opponents also have designs on fourth place, but have appeared to be running out of steam a little, so it feels like a match Spurs should win. The result could have a significant impact on both clubs’ attempt to qualify for the Champions League and even, perhaps, on whether Conte decides to stay for the long haul. A spirit-sapping defeat to a top-four rival would certainly be a step in the wrong direction.

8) A chance for Gerrard to earn notable win

There were moments in the 2-1 defeat at West Ham when Aston Villa looked more inclined to play safe possession football. It was an understandable approach given that, under Steven Gerrard, Villa have yet to beat a side in top-four contention. But having gone into that game on a three-match winning run in which they scored 10 and conceded none, perhaps they could have been a bit more expressive. With Arsenal visiting Villa Park on the back of very little rest since their match against Liverpool, perhaps this is the best opportunity Gerrard will get to earn a notable victory in his nascent career as a Premier League manager. The Gunners will not be as rigid as West Ham and Philippe Coutinho will surely look to find space between the lines, so perhaps Gerrard should encourage a braver mindset this time round.

9) Leeds look to close on safety

Kalvin Phillips and Liam Cooper, neither of whom have played a first-team game since the draw with Brentford in the first weekend of December, are finally ready to return as Leeds seek to follow the dramatic victory over Norwich with three more points that, given the form of the teams below them, would make them far more secure than any side with 29 points at this stage of the season has any right to be. As Leeds seek to carefully manage their comebacks – they start April with games against out-of-form Southampton and Watford and, with a couple of good performances, could be virtually safe by Easter – a place on the bench is their likely fate. Meanwhile Junior Firpo’s knee injury means he is unlikely to come up against Rúben Neves in a battle of the league’s most-booked players – they have nine cautions each though Firpo is very much the man in form, with four in five league appearances since January. 

• Wolves v Leeds, Premier League, Friday 8pm

10) Will Leicester stop Toney?

“I’m a Premier League striker now, I can’t wait to score goals in the Prem.” The words of Ivan Toney after Brentford confirmed promotion last season. He hadn’t scored many of them until recent weeks. Now, with five goals in his past two Premier League matches for Brentford – and eight in his past six in all competitions – he finally looks like the prolific top-flight striker he hoped he would be. The influence of Christian Eriksen has obviously helped, with Thomas Frank’s side a more smooth attacking unit with the Danish playmaker pulling the strings, but Toney is a craftier striker than many give him credit for. At times this season, he has had to feed off knockdowns and play the role of the hold-up man. Now he can focus more on getting into space to finish the chances he knows Eriksen will make for him. “Left foot, right foot, he’ll put it on a plate for you and it’s up to you to put it in the back of the net,” said Toney. So, can Leicester stop him scoring again?