Premier League: 10 things to look out for this weekend

1) Key clash for sliding promoted sides

The teams that came second and third in last season’s Championship –and now sit in the form table’s bottom four – meet in what looks a seriously important encounter. Brentford go into it without Ivan Toney, who has tested positive for Covid, and Sergi Canós, suspended after getting a fifth booking of the season for taking off his shirt when celebrating a goal against Leeds last weekend. Watford also have significant injuries, most notably to the winger Ismaïla Sarr, and after a run of encouraging performances in extremely difficult fixtures must seize the opportunity presented by their next few games to haul themselves away from the bottom three. As Claudio Ranieri said after they lost to Manchester City last weekend: “Our Premier League starts now, we have to get some points.”

2) Leaky defence a concern for City

Manchester City have not kept a clean sheet in their past five games. Admittedly, four of those matches have ended in victories, with the only defeat in the midweek Champions League trip to Leipzig. City had already secured top spot in their group but only Zack Steffen’s saves stopped them from conceding many more on Tuesday. It is a sign something is not right in the City defence, which could also explain Kyle Walker’s frustrations and his subsequent red for lumping André Silva into the air. John Stones looked out of form, while Nathan Aké has struggled to earn a consistent run in the team. City have conceded only nine in the league, so the issues are not fatal for the table-toppers, but the run of failing to keep teams out will not do much for the morale of a regularly rotating defence. Shutting out low-scoring Wolves on Saturday would be a timely confidence booster. 

3) Gerrard back at Anfield with Villa

Steven Gerrard returns to Anfield four games and three wins into his time in the Aston Villa dugout. A few interesting statistical themes have emerged from Gerrard’s games in charge: all are among the five Villa performances to feature the fewest lofted passes and fewest attempted long passes this season, and are among the six with the most completed short passes. Somewhat counterintuitively, despite playing fewer risky passes and more straightforward ones, Gerrard has presided over the four Villa matches in which they have had the lowest possession statistics. Still, results have been good, even if they had the good fortune to convert a combined xG of one into four goals against Brighton and Crystal Palace in Gerrard’s first two games. Liverpool’s fans are likely to be more welcoming than their team and, aside from the manager’s pride, Villa’s two games next week – at Norwich and at home to Burnley – are likely to be more significant. 

4) Phillips a huge miss at crucial time

In their past five league games Chelsea have drawn at home to Burnley and Manchester United, lost to West Ham, beaten Leicester and, in Thomas Tuchel’s words, “stolen three points” from Watford. But they have also had a collective 91 shots to their opponents’ 35 (only the Hornets outshot them, by 13-8). Their recent poor run does not appear in danger of becoming a crisis, particularly with Romelu Lukaku returning to fitness. Leeds will be without their captain, the centre-back Liam Cooper, as well as Kalvin Phillips. Reports suggest the England midfielder may be out for two months, which is bad news given their fixture list. After the trip to Stamford Bridge, Leeds play Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Aston Villa before the new year. Marcelo Bielsa’s side have lost nine of the 12 games Phillips has missed since Leeds were promoted in 2020.

5) Saints call on Caballero to solve crisis

Southampton head for the Emirates Stadium without three of their four most-used players this season. Mohammed Salisu and Oriol Romeu are suspended after both were booked in the draw with Brighton – the fourth time both players have been cautioned in the same game. Alex McCarthy apparently hid the extent of the hamstring injury that stopped him from saving Neal Maupay’s late equaliser at St Mary’s. “I had one [substitution] and we couldn’t take it because he didn’t say anything,” raged Ralph Hasenhüttl. “This for me is unacceptable.” With Fraser Forster also injured, Southampton have signed Willy Caballero on a short-term contract to cover in goal. Should he start on Saturday, this will be the eighth successive Premier League season in which the 40-year-old has appeared. Aside from 2016-17, when he enjoyed an extended spell as Manchester City’s first-choice keeper, he averages 2.7 appearances and one clean sheet per season.

6) Moyes has defensive problem to solve

After Kurt Zouma’s injury, which is set to keep him out for up to 12 weeks, David Moyes will need to fill the void left by a player who has been integral to the West Ham defence. The Hammers sit fourth in the Premier League and have a fine opportunity for another three points at Burnley but, with Zouma and Angelo Ogbonna absent, they could be vulnerable. The Clarets are struggling at the moment but Chris Wood certainly knows how to exploit defensive weakness. Craig Dawson and Issa Diop will likely start but if Moyes is to continue with three at the back, he must find a third central defender. Tomas Soucek could potentially drop back, with Mark Noble replacing him in midfield. Declan Rice is another option to play at centre-back but his manager will surely not want to move him from his usual position. Moyes must find a way to get through to January, when he can sign a replacement, and hope it does not cost West Ham in the meantime. 

7) Smith must decide to stick or twist

Last weekend, for the first time under Dean Smith, Norwich played with a back three and a front two in an attempt to curb the threat of Tottenham’s Lucas Moura, Son Heung-min and Harry Kane without simultaneously curbing their own. The result was an xG of 1.6 – their joint highest of the season – and an xGa (expected goals against) of 1.7, which while not exactly outstanding is still the seventh best of their campaign, and more encouraging than the final score. “I felt three centre-backs would nullify them a bit and it did, but on the other side of it I wanted to play with two up top to give them some problems and I felt we did that,” Smith said after the 3-0 defeat. “I thought we adapted to the game plan really well.” This weekend he must decide whether to stick with it without Brandon Williams, on the pitch for all but 17 minutes of Smith’s tenure so far but unable to play against his parent club, Manchester United. 

8) Newcastle players must seize moment

Newcastle have finally won a Premier League match this season, and momentum is often key when battling relegation. Conveniently, they are playing Leicester next. Brendan Rodgers’ side have struggled for consistency this season and crashed out of the Europa League on Thursday, so Eddie Howe will be optimistic that Newcastle can add to their points tally. Some Newcastle players might justifiably be distracted by someone different being linked every day to replacing them in the team. Those whose places are under threat will not want to be forced out the door, when there is a chance to stay part of a team potentially on the up. Howe’s current crop have a few more chances to prove their worth before the chequebook and exit door are opened in January.

9) Benteke is causing problems for Eagles

Crystal Palace have lost their past three games by a single goal, a sign of falling short in the final third. In that period, they have managed only six shots on target. Christian Benteke, Wilfried Zaha and Conor Gallagher have four goals each this season butPalace are lacking a prolific scorer as they face opponents they have failed to beat in their last 13 league meetings. There is no shortage of attacking talent available to change that on Sunday – but Patrick Vieira’s players must start showing greater composure in front of goal. Benteke has missed eight big chances this season, on a par with only Sadio Mané in the Premier League – and Mané has scored seven goals. Liverpool can afford to waste opportunities, whereas Palace cannot. It may cost them severely if they rely on Benteke for too long. 

10) Players should get their Covid jabs

Tottenham’s Sunday fixture at Brighton has been postponed due to a Covid-19 outbreak in the Spurs camp which has ruled out a number of players and also heavily affected staff. The club have shut down their training ground and had already called off Thursday’s Europa League game against Rennes. In mid-October it was confirmed that 68% of Premier League players had received two vaccination jabs and 81% had received a first dose. These figures will have improved over the past two months but there will undoubtedly be a minority who are still unvaccinated among Premier League ranks. Although a Covid vaccine does not guarantee avoiding infection, research shows it reduces the risk of death or serious illness. To those players who are avoiding it for whatever misguided reason: get jabbed for yourself and others.